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It's Official - U.S. in Recession
Not that this is a surprise to anyone following the economy at all, but it was just announced by the National Bureau of Economic Research that the U.S. is officially in recession.
For what it's worth, a recession typically means an economy has experienced two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth. The NBEC, however, can make a determination on recessions whenever it deems economic conditions warrant it.
And a recession begins when the economy reaches a peak of economic activity...determined, in the current situation, to be February 2020.
U.S. GDP fell 5% in the first quarter (January - March) and is expected to show a significant decline (potentially the worst in history) for the second quarter (April - June).
The fact that this recession is most likely the result of the sudden-stop of economic activity due to Covid-19 and government actions to mitigate its spread, some economists expect the recession (by definition) to come to an end during the second quarter (now), with positive GDP to come in the third and fourth quarters.
That, unfortunately, does not mean the good times will suddenly appear from behind the dark clouds we've experienced the last few months.
Likely it will be a slow rebound to get anywhere near the economic activity we experienced the end of 2019 and very early 2020.
But, at least with the official recession designation in place, we have a goal to work toward.